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Proviso Probe

Saturday, April 01, 2006

M06, Yarbrough, Welch, Moore analysis

An elected official from outside Proviso Township emailed me to ask for my take on Karen Yarbrough's victories. Here's what I wrote back.
With the caveat that my insights into the recent elections are speculation and conjecture, not based on polling, systematic interviews or analysis of precinct returns....

I see a trend of throwing out the establishment and trying something new. The people that are positioned to take advantage of this desire for "something new" tend to be reformers (everyone on the outside wants "reform"), but the issues vary some from community to community.

I see Yarbrough's victories as part of the same trend that had Oak Park voters completely toss the Village Managers Association in the 2005 elections. I see many
suburban communities dumping incumbent pols and political parties in the next few elections.

In the specific races, Yarbrough beating Welch 3:1 has to be attributed to the intense anti-Welch feelings among the voters. Many homeowners still resent the way
he raised taxes--bypassing a referenda--for the magnet school. Many staff members at the schools feel jerked around by Welch's cronies. And there is significant
suspicion that admissions to the magnet school are being rigged based on personal connections.

Yarbrough defeated Moore by such a large margin due to a few reasons.

1. The winds of change were going to blow him out the door anyway.
2. While Moore may of had Serpico behind him, I heard Serpico's precinct organizers don't like Moore b/c they felt he double-crossed them on something in the
past.
3. Moore didn't do a good job of giving county jobs to capable people spread around the township. He got jobs for a few people who mostly resided or had roots in
Maywood. Plus he didn't give the jobs to particularly capable people.
4. Welch's negatives hurt Moore.

Also, both Welch and Moore ran weak campaigns. When they went door-to-door they merely asked permission to place signs. They didn't especially try to make the
case to voters. Welch's message was not focused.

They assumed Welch could win a two-way Dem primary the same way he won a crowded school board race: push name recognition. Name recognition is only a positive thing
if people don't associate negative info with the name.

For example, I went door-to-door in Forest Park the weekend before the election. I asked a 35-45 year old woman in a single family home to vote for Yarbrough.
She responded, "Is she running against Welch?" I said, "Yes." The voter said, "She's got my vote."

Welch may have achieved higher name recognition than Yarbrough, but I suspect some voters simply made the inference that a campaign with 9-11 mailings and obnoxious signage was backed by money that didn't have the interests of the voters at heart.

To fix Welch's campaign:

1. He needed to stay focused on a simple message.
2. He needed to have independent community leadersproviding him with decent buzz.
3. He needed to not piss-off so many people who were energized to not just beat him, but make him suffer.

26 Comments:

  • Heck, I knew very little about Welch. Yet, practically everything I read in the press associated him with greedy behind-the-scenes power brokers and other elements of nefarious ilk. He was damaged goods from the start. As a result, a harshly negative association began to build and fester.

    Strangely enough, those times when I did see him in public, the image that came to mind was that of a "Little Ceasar", a Black "Capone".

    I also remember the articles published in the media wherein his party candidates for the school board nomination would routinely characterize S.D. 209's problems on folk who relocated to Maywood from Chicago. Feeder schools within the area, the parents, teachers & students, were constantly depicted in a negative light by Welch and his team. Surely he'd never read "How to Win Friends and Influence People".

    Where is there anything positive, given so dismal a characterization? So far as I'm concerned, his political career is over. Might as well mark his time on the school board as well.

    By Anonymous Cain, at 9:32 PM, April 01, 2006  

  • Interesting. I heard some negative things about Yarbrough canvassing the neighborhood. Since Karen was elected and re-elected, I hope a few bones will be thrown towards Maywood especially since it appears it is a cesspool these days.

    By Anonymous cynthia, at 4:31 PM, April 02, 2006  

  • The little bones that could have been thrown to Maywood, Moore and Welch stole.

    Also, you must did not do that much canvassing for your "cuzo", because he lost, and lost badly. I am sure the negative comments you heard about Yarbrough came from die hard Welch supporters. Welch's bad press far exceeds Yarbrough's (which is grabage made up by Welch), and Welch's bad press will surely will get him some jail time.

    By Blogger Crome_Dome, at 9:12 PM, April 02, 2006  

  • crome_dome: Can you tell us how Welch and Moore was in a position to steal from Maywood, when it is Karen's husband who is the Mayor and their cronies who are running things. Now - do you really think I don’t know who are the key families and players in Maywood who are bleeding it dry?

    Furthermore, I was out there and I know exactly how the election was won.

    I really wish you made sense. I think it is good to dislike the things that people do that are wrong, but it is absolutely shameful and cowardly to just sit back and make things up and then hide behind a fictitious moniker. I guess you feel the same way and for that reason you don’t want your real name to be associates with these types of lies and misinformation. Well, in that case I guess I don’t blame you.

    By Anonymous cynthia, at 11:47 AM, April 03, 2006  

  • Cynthia it is apparent that you are not from Proviso Township. Can you say police pension fund? Can you say a 40 million bond? You are definitely naive about the dealings of Welch and Moore. I pity you. Ignorance is the most dangerous disease to the body.

    Also, how was the election won? Yarborugh kicked Welch's ASSSSSS! Welch had more signs than votes! Go figure.

    Cuzo, you need to take a reality check! Please tell me what has Welch done to help Proviso township? The people are tired of him that is why they voted his ass out!

    And for the record CROME DOME is the name I use because it was made up to reflect the shape of Welch's head. Tt was used as comical term within my circle to describe the enormous size of Welch's air head . So, Cuzo you can call me whatever you want to call me; it does not matter. Call me Ron, Tommy, Alexis, Billy, Willie Mae, Brandon, and Chris. Call me whatever. Because the community knows and they spoke the truth on March 21, 2006. So go and help your cuzo pick up the pieces

    By Blogger Crome_Dome, at 9:32 PM, April 03, 2006  

  • "Cynthia" was out there on election day? And what did you see? In most precincts, we, Karen and Henderson's cronies, had purely volunteers who often lived in the precinct where we were working. In front of my polling place, I recognized and could call out the names of half the voters, the Welch/Moore workers, one paid unemployed gentleman and the other a patronage employee form Gene's recorder of Deed's Office knew exactly no one. the candidate wins elections but it sure doesn't hurt to have local "volunteer" workers who actually know and care about the area. Cynthis, that's who most of Henderson and Karen's "cronies" are. I cannot wait to see the precincts results where Gene lost his home precinct by 2-1 when he split it even with Karen four years ago.

    By Anonymous garywoll, at 10:35 PM, April 03, 2006  

  • Where is Welch? He has been missing for quite a few days. It was heard that he was on a cruise. He was not at a least two board meets for D88, WHERE IS WELCH? No explanation has been offered for his absence. WHERE IS WELCH? Hiding in Thurmand and Baxter's bed? Go figure!!!!

    By Anonymous Only a matter of time...and I am patiently waiting, at 12:20 AM, April 04, 2006  

  • Cynthia is a tool!

    We are all well aware that blood is thicker than water and in Cynthia's and Welch's case, blood is thicker than the community.

    Let's be realistic. Cynthia could care less about the community. She is only in this to promote the biggest pariah our community has ever known, Chris Welch.

    Welch is dishonest...from his education platform and initiatives that he stole from his predecessor, to his back door 40 million dollar bond deal.

    Again, let us not confuse Cynthia's baseless and futile support of her cousin, Chris Welch with someone who has the community's best interest at heart.

    We will not tolerate treasonable acts perpetrated against our community by outsiders and Welchs!

    By Anonymous Treasonable acts!, at 2:43 PM, April 04, 2006  

  • Karen Yarbrough's victory was a victory between Good and Evil! Karen represented good goverment and Moore and Welch represented bad,corrupt and cronyism politics!
    Her LANDSLIDE victories in two races in Proviso is the stuff of legends!
    I believe that Yarbrough won because of her core voters and supporters, and her landslide occured because of Welch's enemies along with Moore's enemies teamed up to support her and work for her!
    Nobody will ever know why Welch ran, because he had to know it was a Kamakaze run! Welch barely won the 209 race with 12 opponents and having spent for that election over $90,000. For him to jump up and go against Karen was just plain suicidal, but he did and was shown the door out of Proviso politics!
    Welch lost every precinct in his race,including his own,plus his own home town!!!He is like that movie "Walking Dead", just waiting for the day and hour he will be officially electrocuted out of Proviso Politics!
    Nobody can stand that type of beating and come back!
    He was whomped!Stomped!Banged!Crushed!Kicked!Spit on!Defecated on!Sodomized!Tickled!Whipped!Had his head forced into the toilet bowl and held underwater and then flushed!Farted on!Had his face rubbed in dog shit and then rubbed in the crack of Shapiro's ass after he defecated!It was plain old fashion humilation by Karen Yarbrough and her supporters and Welch's friends added insult to injury by not calling the fight off!And now his supporters are standing in line outside Karen's office offering there undying loyalty to her and telling her that they truely were not for Welch and Moore!!
    Moore on the other hand was forced to retire because he was handed his pink slip, and shown the door out of Proviso! Moore's lost is even more telling because he ran Township wide and he also lost every precinct, and in every town!
    Moore 's mistakes are numerous, but the biggest mistakes had to do with
    1.being in office for such a long time, and never, ever doing anything for anyone!Moore was useless!Nobody was able to get jobs, or even help from him and his cronies!
    2.His continued association with Chris Welch. Welch hurt Eugene Moore because Moore was never hated,he was considered ineffective,but never considered "mean spirited", but once he teamed up with Welch , he acquired all of Welch's enemies ,(Which are all over Proviso) and Moore did not see what that would mean for him in his election,until it was to late!
    3.Moore's Chief of Staff Brian Cross! Cross who promotes himself as President of the young Democrats(eventhough he is 40 years old), and who always introduces himself at Gene's meetings as living in Elmhurst, is considered by all voters and insiders as goof! Cross, who has no political base in Proviso was working for Moore and making a pretty penny!His lack of intelligence and his inablity to connect with voters and activists , along with his stupid remarks and lack of credibility caused Moore to be sorely misinformed and he lost the feel of the voters because of him.
    4.His Radio show also caused grave and serious probelms for him, because he was associated with the three hosts who are known as stooges and clowns!
    All this cause his demise, and should give Moore food for thought when he also officially retires, because the voters retired him and Welch on March 21, 2006.
    If Yarbrough decided to give either of them and there cronies any life support and allow them to survive, the same voters who stomped on both Moore and Welch, will come after her as well!
    The days of being taken for granted and not asked and making money for themselves is over in Proviso !

    By Anonymous What Madigan Saw, at 4:00 PM, April 04, 2006  

  • If Welch had lost fairly, I'm absolutely sure you guys wouldn't be spewing this much venom. People's action always and I mean always - reveal the truth.

    In the meantime - While Yarbrough is neglecting Maywood, young people are constantly being murdered Apparently, evil must be RELATIVE if the results of what Karen is doing can be called good.

    Time will tell my new found friends.

    By Blogger Cynthia, at 8:52 PM, April 04, 2006  

  • A Concerned citzen would like to know....

    Did Chris get a bulk rate on his rock cocaine for his campaign smokers from Billy?

    Chip Carswell speaks very highly of this system.."I work for him any day even in my D89 truck, he also looks out for me at East, nuh said"

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 11:52 PM, April 04, 2006  

  • Sorry Cynthia, Maywood will be, in about five years, the town where investors will say, that's where we have to go with our monies and those of us who have labored for 40 years or more to get rid of the Taddeo/Coglianese/Moore/Welch patoronage driven politics will be be, indeed, very happy as will 80% plus of Maywoodians. Go Karen and Henderson Yarbrough!!!

    By Anonymous Anonymous, at 11:54 PM, April 04, 2006  

  • Yanez Cut the Crap Okay

    We all know it's you

    By Anonymous Yanez Bored?, at 6:37 AM, April 05, 2006  

  • Anonymous: I hope you are right. Otherwise, maybe you and I can turn things around. I can be the mayor and you can be my little helper (Vice Mayor). Now if in five years they don't or can’t turn thing around for whatever reason, just remember - it will be our turn and I’m counting on you. What sayeth ye? Do we have a deal?

    Now you do know that will mean I will have to learn your true identity.

    Love Ya...

    By Blogger Cynthia, at 8:48 AM, April 05, 2006  

  • Cynthia,

    Please explain to me what Chris Welch has done for the community?

    Please do a good job of explaining because this is your time to put your cousin in a favorable light.

    Also, please explain "lost fairly".

    Are you incinuating the election was fixed?

    By Anonymous Welch is dishonest!, at 9:23 AM, April 05, 2006  

  • @Welch is dishonest: It is not necessary for me to put Welch in a different light. Regardless of what I say, it will not be enough because some of you have personal vendettas. Why don't you tell me why you need me to put him in a different light?

    As far as the election, I have shown and said enough that we all know that the elections were rigged (plain and simple).

    By Blogger Cynthia, at 11:37 AM, April 05, 2006  

  • Cynthia,

    Rigged how? Please expound.

    I'm just curious to know what good has Chris Welch done for the community? For District 209?

    If anyone knows, you should...you worked on his campaign.

    Why do you think people have a personal vendetta against Chris Welch?

    These are fair questions based on your comments, actions and loyalty.

    Usually you are well written...what's the problem now?

    Please...don't be shy...

    By Anonymous Welch is dishonest!, at 12:26 PM, April 05, 2006  

  • Cynthia, Welch lost 70-30. Are you claiming that a few incidents of Welch signs being torn up by the 29th Ward organization made the difference in the election?

    By Blogger Carl Nyberg, at 12:47 PM, April 05, 2006  

  • Carl: The signs were only a small portion. I would say the biggest thing happened is the dishonesty by other politicians. I would also say the Welch campaign made a big miscalculation in an area that by now they are fully aware of. Anyway, oftentimes, I don't think first comers win against the incumbents in these types of races. I still think the outcome was very good based upon the antics that were carried out by those working for Yarbrough.
    Politics are dirty and those who play the dirtiest win. This is reality and I think this is a fact that we all must face. So, as far as the rest, I don’t know if it really matters since Yarbrough won. I’m interesting in seeing how she will perform. This is really the only thing I care about. This is why I will not blog about what I think happened or didn’t happened. It’s over and that is that.

    By Blogger Cynthia, at 2:20 PM, April 05, 2006  

  • Cynthia, you know I respect your talents as a political blogger, but I think you're being unfair here.

    You claim to have some knowledge of foulplay by people you ID as Yarbrough supporters. (Remember, many of the people helping Karen Yarbrough were people that had strong feelings opposing Moore and Welch.)

    It's unfair for you to claim you have some knowledge of unethical or illegal activity and not discuss what you are talking about.

    If you want to keep it to yourself, then keep it to yourself. If you want to discuss it, then discuss it in detail.

    I'm not going to ask you to repudiate Chris Welch. He's your relative and I think it's goofy for people to expect you to say something against him in a public forum like a blog.

    Here's what I think is fair on Proviso Probe.

    1. You shouldn't be pressured to criticize your family.
    2. No one should make vague allegations against an individual, but not back them up.

    By Blogger Carl Nyberg, at 2:37 PM, April 05, 2006  

  • After reading Cynthia's comments on different threads, I've come to the conclusion that she's (1) disingenious and (2) not very bright.

    By Blogger Provisoguru, at 5:08 PM, April 05, 2006  

  • What world does Cynthia live in? Four years ago, Gene split his home precinct, Proviso #1, with Karen. (It is also my home precinct.) I still do not have the precinct results but I can guarantee it was for Karen by at least two to one. Why, I can also guarantee you that I or no one else removed any of us his ileegally placed signs in the precinct. Gene and Chris seem to believe that signs, on burned out homes, homes of non-citizens, etc actually vote. I knew well before election day that it would be one-sided in that precinct where he lives but had NEVER been involved in his local neighborhood nor did he ever (except once when I was dumb enough to think he would be different than the Pullia, Babe Serpico, Taddeo, Coglianese Melrose Park control of the party and I supported him for a couple of years). Machines cannot even be machines when there is no oil put in the right parts and that includes working precinct captains whether motivated by issues and styles of governance or "what's in it for me." Gene satified neither and has gone down the drain and working with Chris Welch just increased the downfall. Come on Cynthia, Welch, spending at least 100,000 dollars did no better than two poorly funded/backed candidates did four years ago against Karen.

    By Anonymous ecxneg, at 11:35 PM, April 05, 2006  

  • The last comment is mine and I do not know why it did not appear under my name as I believe we should all use our real names.

    By Anonymous garywoll, at 11:37 PM, April 05, 2006  

  • @Carl: To me - people make vague allegations all the time here. But, your comments are noted.

    By Blogger Cynthia, at 7:46 AM, April 06, 2006  

  • Well Cynthia,

    This is the perfect time for you to lead by example.

    Instead of making vague allegations, break the mold and tell us all of the good works that Chris Welch has done for the community.

    Like Carl mentioned, I am not asking you to repudiate Chris Welch...I am asking you to tell us about all of the positive accomplishments that Chris Welch has done for the community he serves.

    Again, is this not a fair question to ask someone who worked on his campaign? Please advise.

    By Anonymous Welch is Dishonest, at 12:32 PM, April 06, 2006  

  • Don't you people get it. Cynthia is Chirs Welch in drag. Have you seen her picture on her blog site. She is Welch in disguise.
    Okay, Cynthia or Chris the joke is over; you fooled us all. You lost the election now get over it.

    Chris aka Cynthia wants people to spend time refuting his/her statements. It is time consuming; he/she is basically trying to pull the wool over our eyes.

    By Blogger Crome_Dome, at 9:58 PM, April 11, 2006  

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